Climate-Conflict Nexus in Somalia: Multi-Sectoral Adaptation Pathwaysfor Building Long-term Resilience

Abstract

Somalia serves as a paradigmatic case of the climate-conflict-fragility nexus, wherein intersecting environmental and socio-political pressures engender cascading vulnerabilities across interconnected systems. Despite extensive documentation of climate impacts in fragile states, there remains limited systematic analysis regarding multisectoral adaptation pathways in conflict-affected environments such as Somalia. This review synthesizes climate projections, sectoral impacts, and adaptation responses to delineate evidence-based resilience strategies pertinent to the climate-conflict nexus in Somalia. We conducted systematic analysis of climate modeling outputs, adaptation interventions, and policy frameworks from 2010 to 2024, integrating CORDEX-Africa projections with empirical evidence from community-based and institutional adaptation initiatives. Climate projections forecast temperature increases of 1.4- 2.1°C by 2040, with extreme heat days rising from 20-30 to 90-120 annually, while drought frequency shifts from 5-7 year to 2–3-year return periods. Agricultural yields are projected to decline by 15-30%, water resources by 20-35%, and 5.2 million individuals face displacement risk by 2050. Nevertheless, promising adaptation pathways are emerging: community-led rainwater harvesting benefits 80,000 rural Somalis annually, climate-smart agriculture enhances sorghum yields by 15-20%, and Somalia's National Adaptation Plan aims to mobilize $2.1 billion by 2030. Our analysis indicates that effective adaptation in Somalia necessitates integrated approaches that amalgamate community knowledge with technological innovation and coordinated policy frameworks addressing both climate vulnerabilities and conflict dynamics. These findings offer actionable insights for policymakers formulating climate adaptation strategies in fragile and conflict-affected states globally.