Comparative Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Major Crops in Somalia: A Study of Maize, Sorghum and Cowpea Production, 1995 to 2025

Abstract

This study presents a comparative analysis of the effects of climate change and climate variability on the production of three of Somalia's most important field crops, maize (Zea mays L.), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench), and cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L. Walp), over the thirty-one-year period from 1995 to 2025. Using a district-level seasonal production record compiled from the seasonal crop assessments of the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit for Somalia and comprising 5,868 crop observations drawn from 45 districts across 13 regions, three geographic zones, and three livelihood systems, the study applied descriptive statistics, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test, Sen's slope estimator, the coefficient of variation as an instability index, standardized production anomalies, and Pearson correlation to characterize long-term trends, inter-annual variability, seasonal dynamics, and spatial patterns. The results reveal a significant long-term decline in maize production (Sen's slope = -2,227 MT per year; p = 0.019), a weaker and statistically non-significant decline in sorghum over the full record that nonetheless becomes significant during 2010 to 2025 (-3,801 MT per year; p = 0.034), and a significant increase in cowpea production (+768 MT per year; p = 0.005) reflecting its expanding cultivation. Cowpea exhibited the highest inter-annual instability (coefficient of variation 65.4 percent), while sorghum was the most stable of the three crops (28.8 percent). Standardized anomalies identified 2021, 2016, 2005, 2023, and 2020 as the most severe production-deficit years, coinciding with documented drought and failed rainy seasons in the Horn of Africa. In the catastrophic 2020 to 2023 drought, the two cereals collapsed together, with maize and sorghum anomalies of minus 1.7 and minus 1.8 in 2021, while cowpea remained comparatively resilient, with an anomaly of plus 0.96 in 2023, pointing to the drought-tolerant legume as a strategic adaptation crop. Production was highly concentrated spatially, with the South zone accounting for 97 percent of maize and 83 percent of sorghum output, and the riverine Shabelle valley and rain-fed Bay plateau emerging as the dominant production hubs. The study concludes that Somalia's cereal-dominated food system is increasingly exposed to climate-driven instability and recommends crop diversification toward drought-tolerant legumes, improved water management across the Gu and Deyr seasons, and investment in climate-smart agriculture as priority adaptation pathways.